Thursday, 26 April 2012

Are we really in a double dip recession?

Well we will be if we talk ourselves into it. The 0.2% decline is only an estimate. Only 40% of the information has been looked at. This is bound to be adjusted in the next few weeks. My guess is that it will be adjusted in a positive way and that we will not have gone into a double dip recession. We may still be dragging along the bottom with very little growth but we will not be in recession.
Why do I believe this?
Many of the other indicators are positive.
The Office of National Statistics says that the biggest culprit was the construction sector and that it shrunk by 3%. But the Purchasing Managers Index indicates that the construction PMI figure was 51.2, anything over 50 means that the sector was in growth. The same goes for the services sector with 3 months PMI figures of 56, 53.8 and 55.3.
So are we really in a double dip recession? Most probably not unless we talk ourselves into one.

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